1.  Changes in Tasmania’s emissions

1.1  Tasmania’s emissions - 1990 to 2019

In 2019, Tasmania’s net emissions were minus 1.68 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e). Tasmania’s emissions decreased by 21.32 Mt CO2-e between 1990 and 2019, which is a 108.6 per cent reduction from the 1990 baseline.

There is a clear downward trend in Tasmania’s total annual emissions from 1990 to 2019 (Figure 1). Tasmania first achieved negative net emissions in 2013 and has maintained negative net emissions since 2015.

Figure 1: Tasmania’s emissions by sector and energy sub-sector - 1990 to 2019

This figure combines a stacked bar chart, showing the change in sectoral and energy sub-sectoral annual greenhouse gas emissions, with a line graph showing total net emissions, from 1990 to 2019. It shows the dramatic decline in Tasmania’s net emissions, from 19.64 Mt CO2-e in 1990, peaking at 21.96 Mt CO2-e in 2003, then rapidly declining to minus 1.68 Mt CO2-e in 2019. It shows LULUCF was largely responsible for the changes in Tasmania’s total net emissions, with LULUCF emissions reaching a peak of 14.29 Mt CO2-e in 2003, before declining to become a net carbon sink in 2012, reaching a minimum of minus 10.04 Mt CO2-e in 2019. It also shows emissions from electricity generation fluctuating year by year, with a trend of increasing emissions in IPPU and direct combustion, while agriculture and transport have remained fairly constant.

Changes in the LULUCF sector have had a major influence on Tasmania’s total annual emissions, reducing emissions and increasing carbon sequestration by 21.42 Mt CO2-e (Table 1) from 1990 levels.

Reductions in emissions also occurred in waste (down 0.14 Mt CO2-e), agriculture (down 0.22 Mt CO2-e), and electricity generation (down 0.24 Mt CO2‑e).

Sectors and energy sub-sectors that experienced an increase in emissions over this period were IPPU (up 0.28 Mt CO2-e), direct combustion (up 0.16 Mt CO2-e) and transport (up 0.27 Mt CO2-e).

Table 1: Tasmania’s emissions by sector and energy sub-sector - 1990 to 2019

Sector/Sub-sector

Emissions (Mt CO2-e)

Change (%)

1990

2019

Energy (including fugitive emissions)

3.70

3.88

4.9

- Direct combustion

1.60

1.75

9.7

- Transport

1.53

1.80

17.4

- Electricity generation

0.57

0.33

-42.2

Agriculture

2.61

2.40

-8.3

IPPU

1.42

1.69

19.5

Waste

0.53

0.39

-26.4

LULUCF

11.37

-10.04

-188.3

Total

19.64

-1.68

-108.6

1.2      Tasmania’s emissions per person

In 2019, Tasmania had the lowest emissions per person of any Australian jurisdiction, at minus 3.1 t CO2­e per person (Figure 2). This is significantly less than the national average of 20.9 t CO2­e per person.

Figure 2: Tasmania’s emissions per person relative to Australia and other states and territories – 2019

This chart shows the greenhouse gas emissions per person for each state and territory in Australia. In 2019, Tasmania was minus 3.1 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent; the ACT 3.0 tonnes; South Australia 13.6 tonnes; Victoria 13.8 tonnes; NSW 16.9 tonnes; Queensland 32.3 tonnes; WA 35.0 tonnes and Northern Territory 83.9 tonnes per person. The Australian average was 20.9 tonnes.

Tasmania’s emissions per person have decreased from 42.5 t CO2-e in 1990 to minus 3.1 t CO2-e in 2019, a reduction of 107.4 per cent (45.6 t CO2-e) over 29 years (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Change in Tasmania’s emissions per person - 1990 to 2019

This area chart shows that Tasmania’s emissions per person have decreased from 42.5 t CO2-e in 1990 to minus 3.1 t CO2-e in 2019, a change of minus 107.4 per cent over 20 years. Emissions have remained relatively steady between 1990 and 2008, when they started to decline noticeably, and drop sharply from 2011.

When emissions from the LULUCF sector are excluded, the percentage change in Tasmania’s emissions per person relative to the 1990 baseline also declines, while Tasmania’s population has steadily grown (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Change in Tasmania’s population and emissions per person – 1990 to 2019

This line chart shows the percentage change in Tasmania’s population and emissions per person, with and without the LULUCF sector, from 1990 to 2019 relative to the 1990 baseline. The solid blue line shows Tasmania’s population has steadily grown, having increased by 14.5 per cent between 1990 and 2019. When emissions from the LULUCF sector are included, the line with orange dots shows fluctuations 20 per cent of either side of 0, and a steady decline from 2003 to a low in 2019 of minus 106.3 per cent. When emissions from the LULUCF sector are excluded (pale blue dashed line), the percentage change in Tasmania’s emissions per person relative to the 1990 baseline declines very slightly. In 2019, the graph shows a decrease in emissions of minus 11.1 per cent per person (excluding LULUCF) relative to the 1990 baseline.

1.3      Tasmania’s emissions and Gross State Product

From 1990 to 2019, Tasmania’s real GSP increased by 94.9 per cent (to $32 billion) while Tasmania’s emissions decreased by 108.6 per cent (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Change in Tasmanian emissions and real Gross State Product – 1990 to 2019

This figure combines an area chart representing Tasmania’s real Gross State Product (GSP), and a line chart representing Tasmania’s total emissions, to show the change in Tasmania’s emissions and GSP from 1990 to 2019. It shows Tasmania’s real GSP steadily increasing by a total of 94.9 per cent over this period (from $16,411 million to $31,993 million). The dashed line shows a decrease of minus 108.6 per cent in Tasmania’s total net emissions over this period, with emissions reaching a peak in 2003 (21.96 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent), declining rapidly to achieve negative net emissions in 2015, to minus 1.68 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2019.

The rise in Tasmania’s GSP, coupled with the decrease in Tasmania’s emissions, resulted in a reduction in the emissions intensity of the Tasmanian economy, from 1,111 to minus 52.9 t CO2-e per million dollars of GSP (a reduction of 104 per cent) (Figure 6).

When the emissions from the LULUCF sector are excluded, the emissions intensity of Tasmania’s economy demonstrates a downward trend, declining from 467.7  t CO2‑e to 262.8 t CO2‑e per million dollars of GSP between 1990 and 2019, which is a reduction of 43.7 per cent over this period.

Figure 6: Percentage change in Tasmania’s real GSP and emissions intensity – 1990 to 2019

This line chart shows the percentage change in Tasmania’s real GSP and emissions intensity, with and without the LULUCF sector, from 1990 to 2019 relative to the 1990 baseline. It shows Tasmania’s real GSP (solid dark blue line) steadily increasing between 1990 and 2019, to show a total change of 94.95 per cent. When LULUCF is included (pale blue dashed line), it shows a downward trend in the emissions intensity of the Tasmanian economy, to a figure of minus 104.40 per cent. When LULUCF is excluded (dotted orange line), it shows a largely constant downward trend since 1990, with the emissions intensity of the Tasmanian economy having declined by 48.09 per cent in 2019.

1.4      Tasmania’s contribution to national emissions

In 2019, Tasmania helped reduce Australia’s total emissions (528.51 Mt CO2-e) by 0.3 per cent (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Tasmania’s contribution to national emissions – 2019

This donut chart shows that in 2019 Tasmania made the smallest contribution to Australia’s total emissions, contributing minus 0.3 per cent. Other state and territory contributions were: ACT (0.2 per cent), NT (3.9 per cent), SA (4.5 per cent), WA (17.4 per cent), VIC (17.3 per cent), NSW (25.8 per cent), and QLD (31.1 per cent).

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